Tänkte jag skulle kolla upp den här Robert Edwards som får uttala sig för hela EU gällande biobränslen och hur förkastliga de är.
2.2. Second Generation Biofuels
Second generation
biofuels can be made
from almost any form
of biomass…
Second generation biofuels can be made from almost any form of biomass. If made
from forest- or crop-residues, they do not compete with food for feedstock.
However, if made from dedicated energy crops, they compete for land and water
resources. Some energy crops (switchgrass, poplar...) can be also grown (at
reduced yield) on present grassland. It is not known how much soil carbon would
be released by this change in land use. Much depends on ground cover and how
much soil is disturbed in planting.
…but are still at the
pilot plant stage…
Second generation processes are still at the pilot plant stage. They are complex
and very expensive, but can use cheaper feedstock. They emit much less GHG
than typical 1st generation biofuels because the growing the feedstock has low
inputs, and the processes use biomass waste streams for process heat
Thermochemical processes (“biomass to liquids”, BTL) work by gasifying wood
then synthesizing road-fuel from the gas. The sub-units (gasifier, gas separation,
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis…) already exist in other industrial processes: they only
need integration. This means one can predict performance and cost, but scope for
future improvement is limited.
The cellulose-to-ethanol process (which best uses straw and wet biomass), is more
innovative. Technology breakthroughs are needed to make it competitive, and
these are unpredictable.
…and are unlikely to
be competitive by
2020.
It is unlikely that 2nd generation biofuels will be competitive with 1st
generation by 2020, and will anyway use largely imported biomass.
Technoeconomic
analysis [JEC 2007] indicates 2nd generation biofuels will be much more
expensive than first generation biofuels. Costs are dominated by investment cost of
the plant. In order to arrive at overall production costs competitive with first
generation biofuels, one would have to assume very significant “learning” to reduce
the capital cost by 2020. However [JEC 2007] used detailed costings for full-size
plant in series production, not for the present pilot plants. Further reduction of these
costs by learning will not start until after several plants have been built. Even if
targeted high subsidies result in the construction of several full-size plants by 2020,
the learning will not have an effect until after 2020. Therefore 2nd generation
biofuels will be still much more expensive even than 1st generation ones in 2020.
Also its inputs will be
imported to a large
extent.
The latest authoritative study on EU wood supply1 indicates that there will not be
enough wood available to meet both the renewable electricity/heat plans and the
needs of the existing wood industries. Therefore rather than forest sources
contributing wood to 2nd generation biofuels, the electricity sector will compete for
bioenergy crops produced on agricultural land.
The PRIMES model, used to estimate the energy mix in 2020, assumed a constant
cost for wood. By the time 2nd generation plants come on line, the more accessible
EU wood will already be used in local district heating/electricity plants, so only the
most remote and expensive sources will still be available. JRC has generated the
1 see the background paper for UNECE/FAO-European Forestry Commission joint policy forum Oct. 2007 at:
http://www.unece.org/trade/timber/docs/ ... uments.htm8
first estimate of a cost-supply curve for energy-wood resources in EU (see
Appendix 2). This shows how the cost of wood rises as demand increases, and that
it will be cheaper to import wood than exploit much of the assumed EU supply.
. 2nd generation plants are sophisticated and therefore expensive. They can only
hope to become commercial on very large scale: e.g. 1 GWth. To gather enough
wood without high transport costs, they have to be at a port. Then it would mostly
be cheaper to buy imported wood (see Appendix 2), in competition with the
electricity sector
Jaha, och i USA har man inte fattat det än bara att det "aldrig" kommer att gå att komma ned till samma produktionskostnad som för bensin?